Turkey may be at a historical precipice. The country, which has looked to gain entrance to the European Union (and the many market benefits that come with a unified market and currency), has certainly had a tumultuous last couple of years. The latest major event was a referendum, which gave Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expanded powers along with a longer term.
These events, from the referendum to the Syrian refugee crisis that has hit Turkey perhaps more than any other country, open up significant questions about the employment market in the country both now and in the future. Is the outlook positive or negative, and what might recent events have contributed to change that outlook? How might candidates, especially international candidates, react to an increasingly volatile situation? That’s what this post will explore.
Turkey’s Current Employment Outlook
According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Turkey’s employment situation is relatively stable. In June 2016, a study found that while the country lags behind other (mainly Western) member countries in terms of total employment, both the employment and unemployment rates are not projected to get much worse in the years to come.
That said, the study did discover a major risk group: “Young people who are neither employed nor in education or training (“NEETs”) risk being left permanently behind in the labor market.” That applies especially for low-skilled young people, whose unemployment rate is twice that of the country’s average.
The Potential Impact of the Refugee Crisis
A 2015 study by the World Bank identifies a potential reason for this trend: Up to 2.5 million Syrian refugees have entered the country since the beginning of the crisis in 2011, which represents more than half of the total numbers of refugees around the world.
Refugees around the world don’t tend to put skilled labor at risk of displacement. The same, however, cannot be said for unskilled labor. According to the study,
“The low educated and women experience net displacement from the labor market and, together with those in the informal sector, declining earning opportunities.”
Understanding the Presidential Referendum
Worries about the impact of refugees on their personal lives were a major reason why, this April, Turkish citizens narrowly voted to significantly increase the president’s executive powers. For domestic candidates, Erdogan’s victory may actually have provided a boost; in fact, the government has promised reforms that would increase flexibility and opportunity in Turkey’s labor market.
The same, however, might not be true for international candidates looking to work in Turkey. In the weeks before the referendum, Erdogan framed the vote as a decision for or against European integration. As a result, attitudes toward the regime have been increasingly negative throughout the Western world.
How will Candidates React?
Ultimately, only time will tell if international (and especially European) candidates will react negatively to the country’s recent developments. The refugee crisis should have little effect on the movement of labor, given that its effects so far have been limited to the low-skilled jobs that don’t tend to attract international applicants in the first place.
The referendum, though, could be a different story. With the vote being perceived as nativist, and its results being challenged as anti-democratic, European candidates may well shy away from a country that has largely rejected their most common world view.
At the same time, Turkey still aspires to enter the European Union, while its leaders (Germany and France) have not given up on the possibility of new and stronger economic ties. Should they reach a positive resolution for all involved, the migration of talent may see no adverse affect – and may even increase over time thanks to improved working and migration opportunities.
The country’s recent events undoubtedly make Turkey an employment market to watch in the near future. Its effects are yet to be clear, but any employer looking for – and relying on – international talent should pay close attention in the next months and years.
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